Reuters Poll: Clear Majority of Economists Now Expect US Fed to Hold Rates All of 2026

The consensus view among professional economists on the US Federal Reserve's rate path has undergone a decisive shift. A Reuters poll of 102 economists conducted June 4–9, 2026, found that 72 — more than 70% of respondents — now expect the Fed's benchmark federal funds rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% through the end of 2026. This represents the first clear majority view of 'no action at all this year,' a dramatic evolution from earlier in 2026 when the dominant expectation was two rate cuts by mid-year.

Perhaps more striking, futures markets have gone even further than the survey economists. Interest rate futures contracts are now pricing in at least one rate hike by year-end 2026, suggesting that professional traders see the possibility of the Fed actually tightening policy rather than easing it — a scenario that would have seemed implausible just a few months ago.

The primary force behind this pivot is inflation. The US Consumer Price Index is running at roughly double the Fed's 2% long-run target, with energy prices — driven higher by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions — contributing significantly to the elevated readings. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, has also remained stubbornly above target. Economists now note that with inflation at these levels and a labour market that remains resilient — with May 2026 payrolls coming in at 172,000 and unemployment at 4.3%, both above expectations — the Fed's dual mandate conditions do not support rate cuts and may actually require firming if inflation does not moderate.

For the upcoming FOMC meeting on June 16–17, none of the 102 economists in the survey expects a rate change. However, what markets are watching closely is whether new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — presiding over his first meeting as chairman — will shift the committee's forward guidance language. Specifically, analysts expect the FOMC statement to remove or soften any easing bias, potentially replacing language that had indicated future cuts were the committee's base case with a neutral or hawkish framing. Such a language shift, even without a rate change, would be a significant signal to financial markets.