Global Markets Stage Relief Rally as US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Oil to Three-Month Low

Financial markets delivered one of their most decisive relief rallies of the year on Monday, June 15, 2026, after the United States and Iran confirmed a deal to halt their nearly four-month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump announced on Sunday that the agreement was complete, authorising the toll-free reopening of the strait and the removal of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed that both sides had finalised the wording of a memorandum of understanding, with an official signing ceremony scheduled for Switzerland on June 19, opening a 60-day negotiation window on Tehran's nuclear programme.

The market reaction was swift and broad-based. Oil, which had carried a heavy war premium since late February, fell sharply: US crude tumbled nearly 5% to around $80 a barrel and Brent traded below $84, a three-month low. Equity markets surged in the opposite direction. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 soared 5.5% in morning trading, South Korea's Kospi leapt as much as 5.7%, Taiwan's Taiex climbed 2.7%, and Australia's ASX 200 rose about 1.5%. European stocks, which had already pushed to a pre-war record high the prior Friday, extended gains, with banking and travel shares leading and energy the sole laggard. US stock futures pointed sharply higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures up around 2.1% and S&P 500 futures up 1.3%.

Beyond equities and oil, the move rippled across every major asset class. Government bonds rallied as the prospect of easing energy-driven inflation lifted fixed income, with European bonds outperforming. The US dollar slipped toward a two-week low, while gold and Bitcoin both posted strong gains. The agreement unwinds a risk premium that has weighed on global markets since hostilities began on the last day of February.

Analysts cautioned that the rally rests on the deal holding and the strait genuinely reopening. The blockage had caused a daily shortfall of roughly 14 million barrels of oil according to the International Energy Agency, and energy officials have warned it could take many months for flows to fully normalise given the backlog of vessels and the need for mine-clearance operations. Even so, the immediate read-through for policymakers is favourable: falling oil prices ease the inflation pressure that has kept central banks on hold, a dynamic that comes into sharp focus with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan both deciding policy this week.