US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Oil Tumbling and Global Stocks Soaring Ahead of Friday Signing

After more than 100 days of conflict that upended global energy markets and reignited inflation worldwide, US President Donald Trump announced on the evening of June 14, 2026 that the United States and Iran had reached a framework agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 'Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!' Trump declared in a social media post. Iranian officials confirmed the two sides had finalised a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and extend the existing ceasefire, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 and further negotiations to take place in Switzerland over a 60-day window.

Financial markets reacted with one of the sharpest relief rallies of the year. US crude futures settled approximately 4.9% lower, while Brent crude also fell sharply. The S&P 500 rose 1.65%, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.07%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 470 points to close at a new record high. Travel-related stocks such as Delta Air Lines, American Express, and Royal Caribbean Cruises were among the best performers, alongside AI-linked technology companies that rallied on hopes that the energy-shock-driven inflation and higher interest rates would fade.

The rally was even more dramatic across Asia-Pacific markets, which opened first after the Sunday evening announcement. Japan's Nikkei 225 benchmark surged 5.5% in morning trading on Monday, South Korea's Kospi jumped as much as 5.7%, Taiwan's Taiex climbed up to 2.7%, and Australia's ASX 200 rose about 1.5%. Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a fresh record high before closing roughly flat.

Despite the euphoria, analysts urged caution. Oil prices begin the week roughly 40% higher than at the start of 2026, and retail US gasoline remains elevated at an average of $4.07 per gallon — 36% higher than on February 28, the day before the war began. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz had caused a daily shortfall of approximately 14 million barrels of oil, according to the International Energy Agency. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright both cautioned that fully restoring energy flows could take many months, given the logistical challenge of clearing the backlog of vessels and concerns about Iranian naval mines. The Atlantic Council noted that a geopolitical risk premium is likely to persist given deep mistrust among the parties and the significant drawdown of commercial and strategic oil inventories.