US Declines to Renew USMCA, Triggering Annual Reviews of North American Trade Pact

The United States chose not to formally renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement by the July 1 deadline, a decision that keeps the trade pact operating but shifts it into a cycle of annual reviews rather than locking in another 16-year term. A senior administration official said the US declined to rubber-stamp a renewal without first addressing outstanding concerns, chief among them the country's trade deficits with its two neighbors. Because no member has moved to withdraw, the agreement remains in effect, but the joint review mechanism means key provisions could be renegotiated year by year, injecting fresh uncertainty into cross-border commerce. The USMCA was negotiated during President Trump's first term to replace the decades-old NAFTA, and governs roughly $1.6 trillion in annual trade across highly integrated supply chains in autos, agriculture and manufacturing. Canada and Mexico have signalled they want to preserve the deal and are pressing for a path to stability. For businesses and investors on all three sides of the border, the outcome avoids an immediate rupture but leaves the long-term framework for North American trade unsettled and subject to renewed political negotiation.