Fed's June Minutes in Focus as Soft Jobs Data Reopens Rate Debate

Financial markets are focused on the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, for a clearer picture of how divided officials are over the path of interest rates. At that meeting the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% but struck a more hawkish tone, with updated projections showing that a majority of officials saw at least one rate increase this year and inflation forecasts revised higher. Warsh also dropped the central bank's traditional forward guidance. Since then, the signals have grown more mixed: a softer-than-expected June employment report, released early because of the Independence Day holiday, revived some hopes that the Fed could still ease later in the year, even as inflation remains above target. Treasury yields have been little changed as investors weigh the competing forces. The minutes are expected to reveal the range of views among policymakers and the conditions under which they might raise or lower rates, ahead of the next policy meeting scheduled for late July.