Singapore Central Bank Expected to Hold Policy Steady on July 27

Singapore's central bank is widely expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged at its scheduled review on July 27, according to a Reuters poll of economists, with inflation seen as manageable even as the Middle East conflict keeps energy costs elevated. Twelve of 16 analysts surveyed expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to hold, while four anticipate further tightening. Unlike most central banks, the MAS conducts policy through the Singapore dollar's nominal effective exchange rate, known as the S$NEER, adjusting the band's slope, width and midpoint rather than setting an interest rate. The central bank tightened policy in April after leaving settings unchanged at its three previous meetings. Economists point to June core and headline inflation of about 1.6% and 1.9% respectively, both within the official 1.5% to 2.5% forecast range for 2026, as evidence that current settings remain appropriate. Authorities are also watching potential El Nino-related weather disruptions and their possible impact on food prices. The split view matters for the currency: a hold would be consistent with current market pricing, while a surprise tightening could steepen the S$NEER slope and lend support to the Singapore dollar.