Canadian real GDP rose 0.3% in May, beating estimates, and appeared on track for a solid second-quarter rebound, reinforcing expectations the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold.
Canada's economy expanded 0.3% in May, Statistics Canada said, topping the agency's initial estimate of 0.1% growth and pointing to a solid rebound in the second quarter as a whole. Growth came from both the goods and services sides of the economy, with output from the mining, quarrying and oil and gas sector rising about 1% to lead gains for a second straight month, helped by oilsands extraction and strong pipeline shipments that boosted transportation and warehousing. April's figures were revised up a notch to 0.6% growth, and the agency's flash estimate pointed to a further 0.2% gain in June. The data does little to change the outlook for the Bank of Canada, which held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25% earlier in July and has kept policy on hold throughout 2026. Economists said resilient growth, contained inflation and lingering labour market slack, combined with ongoing trade uncertainty, argue for the central bank to remain on the sidelines. The Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision is scheduled for September 2.
Key Points
- 1Canadian real GDP rose 0.3% in May, beating the initial 0.1% estimate.
- 2Mining, oil and gas output led growth for a second straight month.
- 3The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% through 2026.
- 4The next Bank of Canada rate decision is set for September 2.
Why This Matters
Steady growth with contained inflation supports the case for stable interest rates in Canada, giving borrowers and businesses more certainty on financing costs in the months ahead.
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