Australia's RBA Expected to Hold Rates at 4.35% as Inflation Eases and Housing Cools

Australia's Reserve Bank is widely expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% when it meets on August 10-11, with all four major banks now forecasting a hold after softer inflation data. June-quarter figures showed headline inflation easing to 3.8% and the trimmed-mean measure at 3.6%, removing the immediate case for another increase following earlier hikes. Economists note that growth is slowing broadly as expected, the jobs market is softening a little faster than anticipated, and the housing market is weakening more than expected, with mortgage demand cooling at some major lenders. Temporary fuel-excise relief is also ending, adding to the mix of factors the bank must weigh. The decision will be announced on August 11, with Governor Michele Bullock's post-meeting statement seen as the key signal; the RBA has said it stands ready to tighten further if required, but the recent data have shifted expectations toward patience. Some economists still see at least one more increase later in 2026, keeping borrowers and savers focused on the outlook for home-loan rates and borrowing power.