AXA's First-Half 2026: Underlying EPS Up 8% to €2.19, Solvency II at 218%, and the 'Growing Forward' 2029 Plan That Followed on September 15

AXA's first-half results for 2026 set up the plan the group presented two months later. The French insurer's half-year earnings release reports underlying earnings per share of €2.19, up 8% from the first half of 2025. Underlying earnings were €4.5 billion, up 4%, or up 9% excluding AXA IM, the asset management business that AXA sold to BNP Paribas on July 1, 2025. Excluding that disposal is the fairer comparison, because the sold business contributed to the prior-year figure and not to this year's.

By segment, property and casualty underlying earnings were €3.2 billion, up 6%, and life and health underlying earnings were €2.0 billion, up 11%. The release says AXA XL, its specialty unit, grew earnings by 4%, though it gives no absolute figure on the page. Gross written premiums and other revenues were €66.3 billion, up 5%: property and casualty premiums were €35.1 billion, up 3%, and life and health premiums were €31.2 billion, up 8%. Chief executive Thomas Buberl called the half "outstanding" and said AXA is an "all-weather company able to navigate changing market conditions," adding that "growth in Life increasingly balancing the growth in P&C." The estimated Solvency II ratio was 218% at June 30, 2026, up 3 points from January 1, 2026, after the removal of transitional grandfathering. The estimate includes a theoretical accrual for dividends and buybacks. Insurance Journal, reporting the results on July 31, gave net income of €4.2 billion, up 9%, and shareholders' equity of €44.7 billion, but those figures are not on the release page reviewed, so they are attributed to that report.

AXA said it expected 2026 underlying EPS growth at the upper end of its 6% to 8% target range under the "Unlock the Future" plan, and it said it would present its next plan for 2027 to 2029 on September 15, 2026, with roundtables with business chief executives on September 21.

On September 15, AXA presented "Growing Forward", with a horizon to 2029. According to ABC Bourse, which reported the main targets, AXA aims for average annual operating EPS growth of 7% to 9% over 2026 to 2029, up from 6% to 8% in the previous plan, and operating return on equity of 15% to 17% over 2027 to 2029, against 14% to 16% in the current plan. Book value per share is targeted to grow by about 15% a year on average over 2027 to 2029. The group targets operating earnings after tax above €10 billion by the end of the plan, compared with about €8.6 billion expected in 2026. ABC Bourse's article carries a correction clarifying that this is after tax, not before tax.

The plan sets out how cash will be handled. AXA targets about €25 billion of cumulative organic cash upstreaming from its businesses to the group over 2027 to 2029, compared with more than €21 billion targeted for 2023 to 2026. It will keep a stable total payout ratio of 75%, made up of 60% in dividends and 15% in share buybacks, and the dividend per share will be at least equal to the previous year's. Dividends and buybacks take priority over acquisitions. The group expects to keep a robust Solvency II ratio, supported by normalised operating capital generation of 25 to 30 points a year.

On growth, AXA aims for revenue growth above 5% a year over 2027 to 2029, one to two points above the market in its main segments, and for at least 100 million customers by the end of 2029, up from 92 million today. Growth areas named are savings and health, direct insurance, emerging markets and inclusive insurance. In property and casualty, the combined ratio is expected to stay stable at about 91% over the plan. A combined ratio below 100% means premiums exceed claims and costs, so a figure near 91% implies a wide underwriting margin that AXA intends to hold, not widen.

Artificial intelligence is a central theme. AXA says it will accelerate AI deployment across the value chain and estimates €500 million to €700 million in pre-tax recurring annual benefits by 2029. Buberl said the plan would also be one of accelerating AI deployment. Guillaume Borie, quoted by ABC Bourse, summed up the plan's ambition in a single word, "conquest", and the article says winning customers and market share is at the heart of it, though it gives no numerical market-share target.

Analysts' first reaction was measured. ABC Bourse quotes Jefferies as saying the new target represents a slight acceleration from the 6% to 8% of the previous plan. The article's page showed the share price at €42.89, down 0.72% when captured, but it does not state the price on the day of the announcement, so the market's verdict on the plan cannot be drawn from it.

These targets are management's ambitions and not guarantees. They depend on markets, catastrophe losses and execution. For exact definitions of operating and underlying measures, readers should consult AXA's own half-year release and the plan presentation.