Medicare 2027: CMS Projects Medicare Advantage Premiums Down 16.5% and Stand-Alone Drug Plans Up Slightly as Open Enrollment Opens October 15

Medicare's annual open enrollment period starts on Thursday, October 15, and the federal government's projections for 2027 point to lower average premiums for Medicare Advantage, slightly higher costs for stand-alone prescription drug plans and a smaller number of plan choices. The numbers come from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, as reported by the American Journal of Managed Care and Healthcare Finance News, and from analysis by the Medicare Rights Center and KFF. Open enrollment runs from October 15 to December 7, and any changes take effect in January 2027.

Start with Medicare Advantage, the private-plan option that now covers about 34 million people, or 47.4% of all people on Medicare. CMS projects that the weighted average monthly premium for these plans will fall by 16.5%, from $14.37 in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027. The agency says more than 99% of beneficiaries will have access to at least one Medicare Advantage plan and 97% will have access to ten or more. It also estimates that roughly eight in ten Medicare Advantage enrollees can stay in their current plan at the same or a lower premium. At the same time, the number of plans is projected to dip slightly, from about 5,553 to about 5,532. KFF's count of the number of plans that the average beneficiary can choose from is 35 in 2027, down from 39 in 2026 and 18 in 2017.

Prescription drug coverage shows a different pattern. For stand-alone Part D plans, which people with Original Medicare buy separately, CMS projects that the average total monthly premium will rise from $35.09 to $36.00, an increase of less than a dollar. CMS also says that among beneficiaries who do not receive the Low-Income Subsidy, 88% can find a basic plan costing $10.30 or less a month and 93% can find an enhanced plan at less than $6 a month. For Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage, the average Part D premium after rebates is projected to fall 38%, from $11.32 to $7.00. The gap between the $36 stand-alone figure and the $7 average inside Medicare Advantage is large, but it does not mean the Advantage plans are cheaper overall, because the quality of coverage and the rules about networks and prior authorisation differ.

One reason for the Part D changes is a temporary federal program. The Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration began in 2024 and ends after 2026. According to AJMC, in 2025 it reduced the base beneficiary premium by $15 and capped year-over-year increases at $35, and in 2026 those figures were reduced to a $10 reduction and a $50 cap. The program cost $9.8 billion over two years, and CMS had originally said it could last at least three years. KFF warned that without the subsidies, some stand-alone drug plan enrollees could see larger increases in 2027 than in recent years. CMS's own average figure shows only a small rise, but individual plans differ, so it is worth checking your own plan's notice.

There are two other points that the averages hide. First, plan exits and changes. Because the number of Medicare Advantage plans is shrinking, some people will not be able to keep their current coverage. The Medicare Rights Center notes that most affected people will still have many options plus Original Medicare, and that they may be able to move to a plan from the same insurer or be moved automatically. Second, the Part B premium, which applies to people in both Original Medicare and Medicare Advantage, has not been announced for 2027. Because Part B is usually deducted from Social Security payments, it interacts with the cost-of-living adjustment announced on October 14.

What should people do between now and December 7? The Medicare Rights Center's advice is simple and sound: review your current coverage, compare it with other options, and check whether you qualify for Medicare Savings Programs or Extra Help, which is the Low-Income Subsidy. Gather your current plan documents before you start, and in particular the Annual Notice of Change that your plan must send, which lists changes to premiums, deductibles, benefits and provider networks.

When comparing plans, look beyond the premium. For drug coverage, check that each of your medications is on the plan's formulary and note any prior authorisation or step therapy requirements, because a cheaper plan that does not cover your medicine can cost more. For Medicare Advantage, check whether your doctors and hospitals are in the network, what the maximum out-of-pocket limit is and how copayments work for specialists and hospital stays. For Original Medicare, consider whether you need a Medigap supplement or a stand-alone drug plan, and note that the rules for buying Medigap after your initial enrolment window differ by state. Official comparison tools, including the Medicare Plan Finder, are updated for the new year in October.

Where can you get help? Every state has a State Health Insurance Assistance Program, which provides free and unbiased counselling and can be found through shiphelp.org. You can also call 1-800-MEDICARE, which operates around the clock, and the Medicare Rights Center runs its own helpline on weekdays at 800-333-4114.

A final point on interpretation. The figures reported here are averages and projections released ahead of enrolment, and the final premiums and benefits that apply to you are in each plan's documents. Headlines about falling Medicare Advantage premiums should not be read as a promise that costs will fall for every enrollee. They are a reason to look carefully during the next seven weeks, to confirm that your drugs, doctors and budget still match your plan, and to change plans if they no longer do.