Global Insured Catastrophe Losses Hit $92 Billion in the First Nine Months of 2026, 29% Below Average and the Lowest Since 2019, Gallagher Re Says

Insurers and reinsurers have enjoyed an unusually light year for natural-catastrophe claims. Gallagher Re, the reinsurance broking arm of Arthur J. Gallagher, reported on October 21, 2026 that global insured losses from natural disasters totalled $92 billion in the first nine months of 2026. That is the lowest figure for the January to September period since 2019 and about 29% below the 10-year average of $128 billion. Insured losses are the amount paid or expected to be paid by insurers, as distinct from the total economic cost of disasters, which includes uninsured damage.

The most striking feature of the data is the absence of a single very large event. Gallagher Re says six consecutive quarters have passed without any natural catastrophe producing more than $10 billion in insured losses. That does not mean disasters were rare. The firm recorded 54 events with economic losses of at least $1 billion, and 24 events with insured losses of at least $1 billion. The year's losses came from many mid-sized events rather than from one headline catastrophe.

Severe convective storms, the category that includes hail, tornadoes and thunderstorm winds, dominated. In the United States, they caused at least $43 billion in insured losses, the fourth straight year above $40 billion. In Europe, they caused at least $9 billion, including $3.8 billion from a late-August outbreak. Globally, severe convective storms accounted for almost 60% of insured natural-catastrophe losses in the period. This is a persistent theme: although hurricanes and earthquakes produce the largest single-event losses, repeated hail and wind events add up. The PERILS estimate for the July European storms, which reached €2.8 billion, and Canadian Prairie hail losses of $923 million fit the same pattern.

The report also names a hurricane that falls outside the period. Hurricane Isaias reached Florida's Panhandle on October 9 as a Category 2 storm. Because it happened after the end of September, it is not in the $92 billion figure, and Gallagher Re expects its insured losses to be in the low to mid-single-digit billions of dollars. Separately, the report mentions Hurricane Lala, which passed near Hawaii's Big Island in mid-August and produced economic losses above $1 billion, the state's second such weather disaster of the year.

Climate conditions provide context. According to Gallagher Re, global temperatures for the first nine months of 2026 were the second highest on record, and France, the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States each had their warmest June-to-August period on record. The article cites a greater than 81% probability from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that El Niño stays "very strong" into January 2027, with a later shift towards La Niña also possible. These are forecasts of climate patterns, not of losses, and the source does not link them to specific loss expectations.

Steve Bowen, Gallagher Re's chief science officer, offered a caution in a quote reported with the findings: "catastrophe activity and catastrophe losses are not necessarily the same thing." The point is that the number and intensity of events can be high without producing high insured losses if they occur in sparsely populated or well-protected places, or fail to strike major cities. The reverse is also true: a single storm landing on a dense, high-value area can generate large losses.

The financial effects are visible across the industry. Reinsurers have reported strong profits: Munich Re's second-quarter major losses were EUR 191 million, far below the level it plans for, and Chubb's nine-month P&C underwriting income reached a record $5.79 billion. Light losses also add to the capital of reinsurers and alternative-capital investors, which supports the downward pressure on prices at the January 1 renewals. Marsh's index shows global commercial insurance rates falling for a ninth consecutive quarter, with property down 10% in the third quarter.

There is another side. Insured losses are only part of the story, and the source does not give an aggregate economic loss total or discuss the protection gap, the share of losses that are uninsured. Households and businesses in affected areas can still suffer severe damage even in a year with low insured totals. Costs borne by governments and individuals do not appear in these figures. For homeowners, low industry-wide losses do not translate directly into lower premiums, particularly in states where rates have been rising to catch up with earlier losses.

How should one read the number? A total 29% below average is a good year for insurers, but not evidence that risk is declining. The ten-year average itself rose as losses climbed in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Insurers price for the long run, and they treat quiet years as part of the cycle. A season in which a major hurricane or earthquake strikes a populated area can add tens of billions of dollars in a few days.

The coming months matter. Hurricane Isaias, with its expected low to mid-single-digit billions, will add to the full-year tally, and the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30 will show whether 2026 remains a light year. Gallagher Re's full-year report, usually published in January, will give the final number. In the meantime, the nine-month data explain why reinsurers are preparing for price cuts and why insurers argue that discipline is needed to avoid repeating past mistakes.