France's First Insurability Observatory Report Finds No Commune Without Home Insurance, but 811 Communes Show Tension and Climate Costs Are Heading Toward €4 Billion a Year

France has run a national natural-disaster compensation scheme since 1982, and in June 2026 it published its first systematic assessment of whether homeowners can still obtain cover as climate risks rise. The Observatoire de l'assurabilité, whose first report was delivered on June 15, 2026, was produced with the state-owned reinsurer Caisse centrale de réinsurance, known as CCR. On June 22 the government set out its response. This article draws on the Direction générale du Trésor's summary and the press kit published by the ecological transition ministry. Because both documents date from June, the article reflects the position at that time and should not be read as current to October.

How the scheme works

The Cat Nat regime obliges insurers to include natural-disaster cover in home and motor policies, funded by a surcharge on premiums, once the government has declared an event a natural disaster by decree. CCR offers reinsurance on the scheme, and the state provides an unlimited guarantee. According to the report, average annual claims were about €1 billion between 1982 and 2024. They are now close to €2 billion and are projected to reach about €4 billion a year by 2050. The drought of 2022, which damaged buildings through clay soils shrinking and swelling, cost more than €3.5 billion on its own. The rising cost trend is the context for a standing instrument to track whether cover remains available.

What the Observatory measured

The report covers single-family homes in mainland France and in Guadeloupe, Martinique, La Réunion, Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy. It examines floods, drought linked to clay soil movement and, for the overseas territories only, cyclones. It measures availability by counting the insurers willing to cover homes in each commune and classifies communes as normal, or under light, moderate or high tension. By the report's definition, a commune with 1,000 houses is under light tension if fewer than 25 insurers are willing to insure it and under moderate tension if fewer than 23 are.

The headline result is reassuring on its face. Every commune has at least one insurer. In mainland France, 97.7% of communes are classed as normal. A total of 811 communes, just over 2% of the mainland total, show some tension: 568, or 1.6%, are under light tension and 243, or 0.7%, under moderate tension. None is classified red, the most severe category. The situation overseas is different: all the territories studied show moderate tension, which means the choice of insurers is narrower than on the mainland.

These thresholds measure how many insurers are willing to cover, not what customers pay or whether claims are settled quickly. A commune can be classed as normal and still have rising premiums or higher deductibles, and a count of insurers does not by itself capture affordability. That is a limit on how far the numbers can be read. Ministers asked for the report to be produced annually.

The government's response

On June 22 the government, through ministers including Monique Barbut and Roland Lescure, said it would adapt the system rather than wait for tension to spread. The Direction générale du Trésor summary lists several actions. An inter-ministerial mission will examine the overseas territories, where the tension is greatest. The Cat Nat surcharge will be reviewed every five years so that the funding of the scheme keeps pace with the cost of claims. The government also intends to keep insurers present in exposed zones and to ease access to the Bureau central de tarification, the body that can require an insurer to cover a risk it has refused. Ministers also asked for the report to be produced annually.

The ministry's press kit adds prevention measures. It mentions a clay experiment running since September 2025 in 11 departments, new rules for building on clay soils for construction from July 1, the integration of the national climate adaptation reference trajectory into flood prevention plans, a national flood map from the Cerema technical agency to be published after the summer, and an evaluation of a flood-resilience programme at the end of June. The details of each measure are in the primary documents and are summarised here only briefly.

What it means for homeowners and insurers

For homeowners, the first finding is that cover is generally available, so there is no immediate gap in the system. The second is that the system is under pressure from rising claims, particularly from drought and floods, and from the cost of rebuilding. That pressure usually reaches households through higher premiums, changes in surcharges or stricter underwriting in the most exposed areas. The commitment to review the surcharge every five years signals that the government expects costs to keep rising.

For insurers, the report creates a transparent benchmark. If the number of communes under tension increases, the benchmark will show it. The emphasis on prevention suggests the government sees reducing damage as part of the answer alongside funding. For overseas territories, where tension is already moderate everywhere, the planned mission is likely to be the most closely watched part of the response.

How to read the numbers

The percentages describe a snapshot, and they rely on the definitions chosen by the Observatory. They apply to single-family homes and not to apartments, commercial property or vehicles. The projection of about €4 billion a year by 2050 is an estimate and depends on assumptions about climate and exposure. Later reports will show whether the trend is stable.

This article summarises official French publications dated June 2026. It is general information and not insurance or legal advice, and anyone seeking cover or challenging a refusal should consult their insurer, broker or the relevant French authority.