Commercial Insurance Prices Keep Falling Worldwide: Marsh Index Shows Property Down 12% While US Casualty Still Climbs 7%

For businesses that buy insurance, the last two years have been unusually kind. Marsh, one of the world's largest insurance brokers, reports through its Global Insurance Market Index that commercial insurance rates around the world fell by about 6% on average in the second quarter of 2026, after a 5% decline in the first quarter. It was the eighth consecutive quarterly decrease. The index is built from the premium changes on the policies Marsh places for clients, so it measures what buyers actually paid at renewal compared with a year earlier, rather than what insurers say they are charging.

A note on the figures before going further. Marsh published its second-quarter release on July 23, 2026, and a more recent third-quarter release has since appeared. The trade publication The Insurer headlined its coverage of the third-quarter index as showing the global decrease "slowing to 5%", but that article is behind a subscription and Marsh's own third-quarter page could not be retrieved when this article was prepared. The regional and line-by-line numbers below therefore come from the fully published second-quarter release, and readers should check Marsh's index page for the newest quarter.

The decline is led by property insurance. Marsh reports that global property rates fell 12% in the second quarter, after falling 9% in both the first quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2025. By region, property rates dropped 19% in India, the Middle East and Africa, 15% in the Pacific, 14% in Latin America and the Caribbean, 13% in the United States, 11% in the United Kingdom, 9% in Europe, 8% in Canada and 5% in Asia. Casualty, which covers liability risks, moved in the opposite direction. Global casualty rates rose 2%, slower than the 3% rise in the first quarter. Outside the United States, every region saw casualty decreases, while US casualty rates rose 7%, down from 9% in the first quarter.

Financial and professional lines, the cover that protects directors, officers and professional advisers, fell 3% globally compared with a 5% fall in the previous quarter, with the United States the only region showing a modest increase. Cyber insurance fell 4% globally, the twelfth consecutive quarterly decline, with the steepest drop of 14% in India, the Middle East and Africa, 10% in Latin America and the Caribbean and 2% in the United States.

The regional composite figures show how uneven the softening is. India, the Middle East and Africa fell 16%, the Pacific 13%, Latin America and the Caribbean 9%, the United Kingdom 8%, Canada 7%, Europe 6% and Asia 5%. The United States was the most resilient market at a fall of just 2%, compared with a 1% fall in the first quarter. The reason is the weight of casualty business in American programmes. Liability costs in the US have been pushed up for years by large jury awards and the cost of litigation, often described as social inflation, so insurers there have kept raising casualty prices even as property rates drop.

Marsh attributes the broader trend to a combination of factors: strong insurer profitability, surplus capital, lower reinsurance costs and higher investment returns, all of which intensify competition for business. John Donnelly, president of global placement at Marsh Risk, said insurers are trying to stand out through broader coverage, expanded policy terms and lower deductibles. In other words, buyers are gaining not only lower prices but better terms.

The link to reinsurance matters. Primary insurers buy reinsurance to protect themselves against large losses, and when that cost falls, they can pass some of the saving to customers or use it to fund more competitive pricing. Separate coverage this week of the January 2027 reinsurance renewals suggests that source of softening has not run out: brokers and analysts are preparing for further reductions, as discussed in our coverage of the reinsurance market.

What does this mean for a business buyer? First, property buyers, particularly those outside the US, are in a strong negotiating position. Rates have been falling for several quarters, and insurers are competing on terms as well as price, so it is reasonable to ask for lower deductibles, broader perils and longer policy periods. Second, buyers of US liability insurance should not expect the same relief. Casualty rates are still rising there, although the pace has slowed from 9% to 7%, and insurers are cautious about the legal environment. Third, cyber buyers benefit from twelve straight quarters of falling prices, but cyber risk itself has not become smaller, so the sensible approach is to use the softer market to improve coverage and security controls rather than simply to cut spending.

For insurers, the picture is more mixed. Falling prices squeeze underwriting margins, but profitability is currently strong and catastrophe losses have been light in several recent quarters. Donnelly said current conditions are likely to persist absent a severe northern hemisphere storm season. That caveat is important. The soft market is a product of benign losses and abundant capital, and a major hurricane, earthquake or large systemic loss could change both quickly. Insurance cycles have turned before on exactly this kind of event.

Readers should also keep in mind what the index does and does not show. It reflects Marsh's client base, which skews toward larger and more complex buyers, and it measures changes in premium for comparable cover rather than the total amount a business spends, which can move with its own exposures and claims history. A company that grows, adds locations or has a bad claims year can see its bill rise even in a falling market. The headline figures are best read as a guide to the direction of the market, and every buyer's result will depend on its own risk profile.

The practical point is that the current market gives buyers leverage, but the leverage is not evenly spread across lines or countries and may not last. Businesses that start renewal preparation early, present their risk information clearly and compare options across insurers are most likely to turn a softening market into real savings and better protection.