Marsh Global Insurance Market Index: Commercial Rates Fall 5% in Q3 2026, the Ninth Straight Decline, as US Casualty Rises 6% and Pacific and IMEA Drop 12% and 14%

Businesses buying insurance continued to benefit from falling prices in the third quarter of 2026, with one important exception. Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index, published on October 21, 2026, shows that global commercial insurance rates fell an average of 5% in the quarter. That followed a 6% decline in the second quarter, and it is the ninth straight quarterly decrease, as reported by Insurance Journal and in Marsh's own release.

The pattern by line is uneven. Property was the biggest driver of the decline, with rates down 10% globally. Marsh's figures show that property fell 9% in the first quarter and 12% in the second, so the third-quarter fall is smaller than the second but still large. By region, property fell most in India, the Middle East and Africa, at 15%, followed by the Pacific at 14% and Latin America and the Caribbean at 13%. The UK saw an 11% fall, the US 10%, Europe 9%, Canada 8% and Asia 7%. Casualty was the only line that rose, up 1% globally after a 2% increase in the second quarter. The increase was driven by the United States, where casualty rates rose 6% after rising 7% in the previous quarter, and every other region recorded a decrease. Insurance Journal reports that litigation and large settlements affected US pricing, and that capacity became more selective, with higher attachment points.

Financial and professional lines fell 3% globally, the 17th consecutive quarterly decline, although US rates in this category rose 1%. Cyber rates fell 4% globally, the 13th straight quarterly decline, but in the US they were flat, which ended that country's run of decreases. The release does not give a separate rate figure for directors and officers liability, but says insurers focused on that line and that double-digit reductions were achieved in select situations.

The regional composites show how widely the softening is spread. The US composite fell 1%, after a 2% fall in the second quarter, so it is the market closest to stability. Canada fell 6%, the UK 8%, Europe 6% and Asia 6%. Latin America and the Caribbean fell 9%, the Pacific 12%, and India, the Middle East and Africa, reported together, fell 14%.

Marsh's explanation is that strong insurer financial results, favourable reinsurance terms, new market entrants and expanded capacity from managing general agents have all contributed. John Donnelly, president of global placement at Marsh, said: "Market conditions remained broadly unchanged, with continued rate pressure across much of the market," and, according to Insurance Journal, that a benign US hurricane season contributed to favourable underwriting results. Buyers have generally obtained lower rates, broader coverage, higher limits, lower deductibles and long-term agreements. Some used the savings to restructure programmes, add limits or broaden coverage, but Donnelly noted that many buyers were "more inclined to retain premium savings rather than reinvesting them in additional coverage," against an uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

The index also lists where underwriters are still cautious: catastrophe exposure, US casualty, directors and officers liability, and cyber risks tied to artificial intelligence, vendor dependencies, privacy and ransomware. Marsh observed that early signs of rate stabilisation emerged in the third quarter, a cautious statement that falls short of predicting an end to the decline.

Other data published this month are consistent with the picture. Munich Re raised its profit target on October 23 after light major losses, while telling investors that its July renewals saw volume and prices fall. Gallagher Re said global insured catastrophe losses for the first nine months of 2026 were the lowest since 2019. Selective Insurance, in its third-quarter results, reported an average renewal price increase of 5.6% but a 7% fall in written premium as it pruned weaker business. Together they describe a market in which prices are lower for many buyers but insurers are trying to protect margins by being selective.

Two terms help in reading the index. A composite rate is the average change in the price of renewing programmes across all lines in a region, so a 5% fall means a typical programme cost about 5% less than a year earlier for the same exposure. Attachment points are the level of loss at which an insurance layer begins to pay, and raising them shifts more of a loss to the buyer or to lower layers of cover. Both ideas explain why a buyer can see a lower premium and still carry more of the risk. What the index does not show is the experience of any one buyer. It measures the change in price on renewing programmes, weighted across a large sample, and does not account for changes in cover, so an individual company's renewal may differ widely depending on its loss record, industry, location and the lines it buys. For readers who want precise definitions, the release and the full index data are available from Marsh.