AXA's Nine-Month Premiums Rise 5% to €93 Billion as AXA XL Shrinks 1% in a Softening Market, Hail Losses Breach the Cat Budget and the Solvency II Ratio Slips to 213%

AXA's nine-month results, reported by Insurance Business on October 29, 2026, describe a large European insurer growing in personal and retail lines while deliberately holding back in the part of its business most exposed to falling commercial prices. Group premiums and other revenues rose 5% to €93 billion. Property and casualty gross written premiums and other revenues reached €48.1 billion, up 3% on a comparable basis, which means after adjusting for currency and changes in the scope of the group. The figures come from a trade-press summary of AXA's release, so some of the company's other disclosures are not covered here.

Where the growth came from

Personal lines were the strongest part of the P&C portfolio, growing 7% to €17.2 billion. Retail P&C and commercial business outside AXA XL grew 6% overall. AXA XL, the group's global large-commercial and reinsurance unit, moved the other way: its insurance business shrank 1%. The report says prices fell 1% in AXA XL's insurance business, that property volumes rose and that casualty volumes fell. AXA described this as disciplined cycle management in a softening market. The idea is that when prices fall, a disciplined insurer writes less business rather than accepting terms it considers inadequate, giving up premium to protect margins.

The retreat is sharper in reinsurance. AXA XL Reinsurance premiums fell 9% to €2.2 billion. This article is based only on the AXA report and does not assess the wider reinsurance market.

Hail and the catastrophe budget

Natural catastrophe losses exceeded the prorated annual budget of 4.5 points of combined ratio. A point of combined ratio is one percentage point of premiums earned, so a 4.5-point budget means the group plans for natural catastrophe claims to take about 4.5% of premiums over the year. The report attributes the overshoot to secondary perils, which are smaller or more frequent events such as hail, floods and storms that are not the headline disasters, mainly in France, Switzerland and Italy.

The modelling firm PERILS estimated insured losses from the late-August Raphaela hailstorms at €3.3 billion, after €2.2 billion from July storms in the same countries. Together that is €5.5 billion of insured losses from two hail episodes, a simple sum of the two reported estimates, and it is for the industry as a whole, not for AXA alone. The report does not state AXA's own share of those losses or the exact size of the overshoot against the budget, so the hit to AXA's earnings cannot be quantified from it.

The report does not discuss the causes of the hail losses, and this article draws no attribution beyond what the source says.

Capital and guidance

AXA's Solvency II ratio, the European regulatory measure of capital strength, fell to 213% at the end of September from 218% at the end of June. A ratio above 100% means the group holds more eligible capital than the regulatory requirement, so 213% is well above the minimum, and a five-point move over a quarter is modest. The report does not say what drove the decline, so the reasons cannot be determined from it.

AXA's guidance is for full-year underlying earnings of about €8.6 billion, with underlying earnings per share growth at the top end of its 6% to 8% target range. This indicates the company expects to meet its objectives despite the catastrophe overshoot. The report does not provide the breakdown of how the group expects to get there.

What it means for customers and brokers

For policyholders, the picture depends on the line. Personal and retail customers are seeing premium growth, which in the report appears as higher volumes and higher revenue, not necessarily as price rises, since the figures combine both effects. For large commercial buyers, the report shows AXA XL prices down 1%, with property volumes up and casualty volumes down.

For the market, the AXA results highlight the tension between two forces. A soft market encourages price competition and growth in volumes, but weather losses have not softened. Insurers that manage the cycle by cutting volume where margins are thin are accepting lower growth in return for earnings stability.

How to read the numbers together

The figures can be read as three separate stories. The first is growth: group revenue of €93 billion, up 5%, and P&C revenue of €48.1 billion, up 3% on a comparable basis, show a business still expanding. The second is a deliberate choice about price: AXA XL, where prices fell 1%, is the part of the group that grew least, with the insurance business down 1% and reinsurance down 9%. The third is weather: the hail losses show that even in a softening market, claims for secondary perils can accumulate and push a company beyond its budget.

The three stories interact. Falling commercial prices reduce the margin available to absorb weather losses, which is one reason a disciplined insurer reduces volume in the segments where prices are weakest. The report presents AXA's approach as a decision to hold back; it does not say whether the approach has improved margins, and the nine-month figures alone cannot show that.

It is also worth remembering the different measures used. Premiums and other revenues are a measure of the size of the business, underlying earnings are a measure of profit before certain items, and the Solvency II ratio is a measure of capital. A company can report growth in the first, guidance for the second and a small decline in the third in the same release, as AXA does, without any contradiction.

Limits of the source

This article relies on one trade-press report of the results. It does not include the full AXA release, segment profit figures, the reserve position or the dividend, and it should not be taken as a complete view of the company. It is general information and not investment advice. Readers who need detail should refer to AXA's published results and regulatory filings.